Real Estate Insider Blog

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25
Oct
2015

LET'S TALK REAL ESTATE: WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

After the invention of air conditioning, land in Florida has always been attractive, especially to retiring baby boomers.

While the oldest of the generation have already called it quits, the largest part of the population cohort, born from 1957 to 1961, have yet to retire. When they do, they'll find winters in Ohio inhospitable, and like those who've retired before them, they'll flock to warmer climes.

While Texas and other energy-rich states have gained a lot of media attention for creating jobs and attracting workers, Florida is still in the business of attracting retirees and those that serve them.

From July 2013 to July 2014, six of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the U.S. were in Florida. The state added almost 200,000 people during that time, and passed New York as the third most populous state, with just shy of 20 million people. The fastest growing metropolitan area in the country was The Villages, a retirement community in Sumter County, FL whose population jumped by 5.4% over the course of the year.

Naples, Fort Myers, and Sarasota were also among the other top-growth spots.

This ever-growing Florida population will eventually fuel a steady rise in real estate prices. We can already see this in the number of vacation homes sold. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), people bought 1.13 million vacation homes last year! That was 57.4% more than 2013, which had experienced a 30% increase from 2012.

The numbers might be inflated a bit ...

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17
Oct
2015

DELIINQUENT MORTGAGES CONTINUE TO FALL

By Michael Neal

According to the most recent release of the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey, the share of mortgages that are considered delinquent continued to fall. The delinquency rate is at its lowest level since the third quarter of 2007.

According to the most recent release of the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey, the share of mortgages that are considered delinquent continued to fall. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the share of mortgages past due declined to 5.68% in the fourth quarter of 2014, 17 basis points from the third quarter of 2014 and 71 basis less than its level in the fourth quarter of 2013. At 5.68% the delinquency rate is at its lowest level since the third quarter of 2007.

The decrease over the year in the not seasonally adjusted share of mortgages past due reflected declines over each stage of delinquency. The proportion of mortgages 30-59 days past due fell by 31 basis points to 2.97% while the percentage of mortgages considered 60-89 days past due shrank by 13 basis points to 1.02%. The share of mortgages 90 or more days past due decreased 30 basis points to 2.25%. As Figure 1 shows, mortgages 90 or more days past due averaged 0.8% between 1980 and 2005. However, the percentage of mortgages 90 or more days past due soared during the most recent recession, peaking at 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009. Since then, the share of mortgages 90 or more days past due has declined significantly.

A...

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02
Oct
2015

A MORE ROBUST YEAR FOR HOUSING IN 2015

BY Michael Neal


The National Association of Home Builders hosted an economic and housing outlook seminar at its International Builders' Show in Las Vegas inviting Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac, and David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, to join David Crowe to discuss the outlook for 2015. Here are the highlights.

A strengthening labor market, low interest rates, improving mortgage availability and growing pent-up demand will help to significantly boost single-family housing production in the year ahead and move the housing recovery to higher ground.

Accelerating economic growth and employment gains are the primary factors that have helped consumer confidence jump back to pre-recession levels, according to NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The signs point to a more robust year for housing. Household balance sheets are returning to normal levels, home owners' equity is increasing and significant pent-up demand is rising. More than 7 million existing home sales were postponed or lost during the downturn; and while some are lost forever, we should see some catch-up.

NAHB is projecting 993,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.7 percent from last year's total of 930,000 units.

Single-family production is expected to rise 26 percent in 2015 to 804,000 units. This is a good beginning, but is still well below a normal level of 1.3 to 1.4 million single-family starts.

On the multifamily front, NAHB is anticipating 358,000 starts in 2015,...

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