Real Estate Insider Blog
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DENVER — “This is going to be the longest economic expansion in the post-World-War-II era,” stated Kevin Thorpe, the global chief economist at Cushman & Wakefield.
He was giving an assessment to a crowd of reporters at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference, and the general message was one of growth — not risk.
“The U.S. will not be going into recessions anytime soon,” Thorpe said.
“Recessions don’t just happen,” he added. “First we need to see imbalances somewhere in the economy — too much credit, too much exuberance in any particular sector.” Equity markets, oil prices, what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates and “wild cards” could change that, of course, but in general, Thorpe was confident that the economy is strong and will remain so for the immediate future.
“Of course there will be another recession at some point, and the next question becomes ‘What will the next recession look like?'”
In Thorpe’s opinion, it won’t look as gnarly as the last one. “It’s not likely to be nearly as severe as the one we went through in 2008-2009,” he noted. “Big recessions don’t happen very often; every 50 years seems to be the pattern. The next recession is probably more likely to be a traditional recession, with two to three quarters of job...
BY Michael Neal
Relative to fundamentals, home prices nationally looked 2% undervalued in the fourth quarter of 2014. Home prices in 70 of the 100 largest metros are less than 10% over- or undervalued. That's the highest number of markets close to local long-term fundamentals since the recovery began, and a sign that the housing market is becoming more stable and healthy.
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